Scenario planning is not best-case/worst-case
Distinguish useful workforce scenarios from simple best-case and worst-case forecasts.
The trap: calling three forecasts “scenarios.” Best-case, base-case, and worst-case are useful for sensitivity. They are weak for workforce strategy because they usually stretch one assumption up and down. Real scenario planning asks what different forces could combine to produce different operating conditions. For future-of-work literacy, build each scenario around a causal sentence: “If AI adoption is fast and customer trust is low, then human exception handling becomes the scarce skill.” That sentence is better than “pessimistic case: productivity falls.” It explains why the future is different and what capability the organization must test. A strong scenario set should contain:…
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